February 24, 2009

Nothing will be the same after this crisis

According to a recent article by Costas Simitis, former Prime Minister of Greece, the global financial crisis is dealt in a different way in Greece; suggesting that Greeks have special features, which will allow them to avoid problems and to find their own solutions.

Simitis argues that this view is dangerous because it creates illusions.

Reasons for crisis in Greece

- Strong and negative influence from the global financial crisis and falling demand in the United States, China, Europe and other countries.

- Disadvantages of Greek economy: Lack of competitiveness, excessive debt, low public and private investment.

- Social unrest and political instability.

Highlights

- Changes in the U.S. economy need to come first. Restored financial stability, increase of consumption and decrease of unemployment are some of the core issues. Increased demand in the U.S. will benefit China and the developed countries of the E.U.

- The decade of continuous growth in the U.S. took place through an extensive lending to consumers and businesses. Borrowing in the future will be much more limited. Governments and their banks will operate under stricter rules from the fear of a new financial crisis.

- Recovery plans of developed countries should not only include banks, but also help to rebuild the industrial and productive players who destroyed from the crisis and global competition. The recovery is a goal that requires money and time.

- An additional concern is that U.S. imports are higher from their exports. The recent crisis requires an increase of domestic production in both the U.S. and elsewhere. Millions of unemployed should be absorbed, new jobs and new opportunities to be created for economic activity's shake.

- China is currently buying U.S. bonds and has invested enormous surplus of foreign exchange in dollars. If a trade war will appear there is always an option to press the U.S. by investing in Euros or other currencies and causing the collapse of dollar value. This is not an unrealistic scenario. Mr. Obama asked China to revalue its currency to protect the production of other countries by Chinese competition. China responded that if this happen it should revise its policy of dollar support.

- Under the new conditions established, Americans and Europeans will not buy Chinese products with a same pace as before. Chinese exports, and hence growth of China will be affected negatively as a result. A wave of protectionism and devaluation of currency for competitive reasons is likely.

- Consequences from the crisis in Balkan countries have not yet occurred in full extent. Currency devaluations and bank insolvencies can not be excluded; that might have an impact on Greek Economy.
- Greece will face the peak of the crisis in the autumn, when tourist season will end with significantly fewer tourists than in previous years.
- Countries such as Germany and the Netherlands carry a lot of concern whether they will agree on rescue moves of other states. Greece presents one of the highest public debt in the EU, has already undergone a same procedure just two years ago and so is considered as a relapse. However, a revised Stability Program for the Greek government will come soon.
- In the end, neither U.S. nor Europe alone can save the world economy. The earthquake that shocked the world markets requires a consensus formulation of international economic relations. Greece should find the strength within the E.U. to defend its interests.

January 04, 2009

IPO market may not revive until the second half of 2009


IPO market may not revive until the second half of 2009
By Lynn Cowan
The Wall Street Journal Europe
02 Jan 2009

With many of the world’s stock markets showing their steepest oneyear declines ever, the market for initial public offerings of stock has become as empty as an investment banker’s bonus check. The question now is when the market will revive. Many...read more...

October 28, 2008

"Andrew Lahde: Goodbye!"

Now, this is how you close a fund!

Andrew Lahde, manager of a small California hedge fund, Lahde Capital, burst into the spotlight last year after his one-year-old fund returned 866% betting on the subprime collapse. Last month, he took his ball and went home. Tired of the stress, he closed the fund.

Today, Lahde passed along his "goodbye" letter (via FT Alphaville and Portfolio.com), a snarky "Up Yours" to those who do deserve it.

Enjoy...


Dear Investor,

Today I write not to gloat. Given the pain that nearly everyone is experiencing, that would be entirely inappropriate. Nor am I writing to make further predictions, as most of my forecasts in previous letters have unfolded or are in the process of unfolding. Instead, I am writing to say goodbye.

Recently, on the front page of Section C of the Wall Street Journal, a hedge fund manager who was also closing up shop (a $300 million fund), was quoted as saying, “What I have learned about the hedge fund business is that I hate it.” I could not agree more with that statement. I was in this game for the money. The low hanging fruit, i.e. idiots whose parents paid for prep school, Yale, and then the Harvard MBA, was there for the taking. These people who were (often) truly not worthy of the education they received (or supposedly received) rose to the top of companies such as AIG, Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers and all levels of our government. All of this behavior supporting the Aristocracy, only ended up making it easier for me to find people stupid enough to take the other side of my trades. God bless America.

There are far too many people for me to sincerely thank for my success. However, I do not want to sound like a Hollywood actor accepting an award. The money was reward enough. Furthermore, the endless list those deserving thanks know who they are.

I will no longer manage money for other people or institutions. I have enough of my own wealth to manage. Some people, who think they have arrived at a reasonable estimate of my net worth, might be surprised that I would call it quits with such a small war chest. That is fine; I am content with my rewards. Moreover, I will let others try to amass nine, ten or eleven figure net worths. Meanwhile, their lives suck. Appointments back to back, booked solid for the next three months, they look forward to their two week vacation in January during which they will likely be glued to their Blackberries or other such devices. What is the point? They will all be forgotten in fifty years anyway. Steve Balmer, Steven Cohen, and Larry Ellison will all be forgotten. I do not understand the legacy thing. Nearly everyone will be forgotten. Give up on leaving your mark. Throw the Blackberry away and enjoy life.

So this is it. With all due respect, I am dropping out. Please do not expect any type of reply to emails or voicemails within normal time frames or at all. Andy Springer and his company will be handling the dissolution of the fund. And don’t worry about my employees, they were always employed by Mr. Springer’s company and only one (who has been well-rewarded) will lose his job.

I have no interest in any deals in which anyone would like me to participate. I truly do not have a strong opinion about any market right now, other than to say that things will continue to get worse for some time, probably years. I am content sitting on the sidelines and waiting. After all, sitting and waiting is how we made money from the subprime debacle. I now have time to repair my health, which was destroyed by the stress I layered onto myself over the past two years, as well as my entire life — where I had to compete for spaces in universities and graduate schools, jobs and assets under management — with those who had all the advantages (rich parents) that I did not. May meritocracy be part of a new form of government, which needs to be established.

On the issue of the U.S. Government, I would like to make a modest proposal. First, I point out the obvious flaws, whereby legislation was repeatedly brought forth to Congress over the past eight years, which would have reigned in the predatory lending practices of now mostly defunct institutions. These institutions regularly filled the coffers of both parties in return for voting down all of this legislation designed to protect the common citizen. This is an outrage, yet no one seems to know or care about it. Since Thomas Jefferson and Adam Smith passed, I would argue that there has been a dearth of worthy philosophers in this country, at least ones focused on improving government. Capitalism worked for two hundred years, but times change, and systems become corrupt. George Soros, a man of staggering wealth, has stated that he would like to be remembered as a philosopher. My suggestion is that this great man start and sponsor a forum for great minds to come together to create a new system of government that truly represents the common man’s interest, while at the same time creating rewards great enough to attract the best and brightest minds to serve in government roles without having to rely on corruption to further their interests or lifestyles. This forum could be similar to the one used to create the operating system, Linux, which competes with Microsoft’s near monopoly. I believe there is an answer, but for now the system is clearly broken.

Lastly, while I still have an audience, I would like to bring attention to an alternative food and energy source. You won’t see it included in BP’s, “Feel good. We are working on sustainable solutions,” television commercials, nor is it mentioned in ADM’s similar commercials. But hemp has been used for at least 5,000 years for cloth and food, as well as just about everything that is produced from petroleum products. Hemp is not marijuana and vice versa. Hemp is the male plant and it grows like a weed, hence the slang term. The original American flag was made of hemp fiber and our Constitution was printed on paper made of hemp. It was used as recently as World War II by the U.S. Government, and then promptly made illegal after the war was won. At a time when rhetoric is flying about becoming more self-sufficient in terms of energy, why is it illegal to grow this plant in this country? Ah, the female. The evil female plant — marijuana. It gets you high, it makes you laugh, it does not produce a hangover. Unlike alcohol, it does not result in bar fights or wife beating. So, why is this innocuous plant illegal? Is it a gateway drug? No, that would be alcohol, which is so heavily advertised in this country. My only conclusion as to why it is illegal, is that Corporate America, which owns Congress, would rather sell you Paxil, Zoloft, Xanax and other additive drugs, than allow you to grow a plant in your home without some of the profits going into their coffers. This policy is ludicrous. It has surely contributed to our dependency on foreign energy sources. Our policies have other countries literally laughing at our stupidity, most notably Canada, as well as several European nations (both Eastern and Western). You would not know this by paying attention to U.S. media sources though, as they tend not to elaborate on who is laughing at the United States this week. Please people, let’s stop the rhetoric and start thinking about how we can truly become self-sufficient.

With that I say good-bye and good luck.

All the best,

Andrew Lahde

October 22, 2008

"Alan Greenspan quote"

"Not only have individual financial institutions become less vulnerable to shocks from underlying risk factors, but also the financial system as a whole has become more resilient."

(Alan Greenspan, 2004)

Yeah..tell me about it...!

"Bird and Fortune - Subprime Crisis"

John Bird and John Fortune (the Long Johns) brilliantly, and accurately, describing the mindset of the investment banking community in this satirical interview.

URL: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mzJmTCYmo9g

/A

October 20, 2008

"Finally Brezhnev was right..."

Inspired from the recent crisis...

The story starts with Leonid Brezhnev on the reviewing stand at Lenin's Tomb, surrounded by underlings, watching the May Day parade. The Soviet Union's full military might is there on display. First come battalions of elite troops, impressive soldiers, all six foot two, marching in absolute lockstep. Right behind them are phalanxes of state-of-the-art artillery and tanks. Then come the nuclear missiles-it's an awesome show of strength. But after the missiles comes a straggle of six or seven civilians, unkempt, shabbily dressed, utterly out of place. An aide rushes up to Brezhnev and begs forgiveness. "Comrade Secretary, my apologies, i do not know who these people are or how they've come into our parade".

"Do not be concerned, Comrade," replies Brezhnev. "I am responsible for them. They are our economists, and you have no idea how much damage they can do."

(Greenspan, A., The Age of Turbulence, 2007)


Finally Brezhnev was right...

October 19, 2008

"Government is not the solution to our problem; government is the problem..."

Dear friends,

Stocks Have Actually Done Better Under Democrats

Today Sunday, October 19, 2008, is the 21st anniversary of Black Monday, October 19, 1987, when the stock market (NYSE: New York Stock Exchange, is what we usually mean by "stock market") took, to be polite, a dip.

Since the whole world is waiting for the US elections on November 4, 2008 we found some useful assumptions from the past...

The Stock Market under Democratic & Republican administrations:

President Party Date Months in Office Annualized Stock Return

Truman D 11/48-10/52 48 18.28%
Eisenhower R 11/52-10/60 96 14.96%
Kennedy D 11/60-10/63 36 15.15%
Johnson D 11/63-10/68 60 10.39%
Nixon R 11/68-7/74 69 -1.32%
Ford R 8/74-10/76 27 17.21%
Carter D 11/76-10/80 48 11.04%
Reagan R 11/80-10/88 96 15.18%
Bush R 11/88-10/92 48 14.44%
Clinton D 11/92-10/00 96 19%
Bush, G.W. R 11/00-2/06 63 -0.92%

Average from 1948 to Feb. 2006

Democrat 42.8% 15.26%
Republican 57.2% 9.53%
Overall 100% 11.95%

To read the whole article, press here.

Big government is staging a comeback.

When Ronald Reagan entered the White House in 1981, he famously declared, "Government is not the solution to our problem; government is the problem."

...If Barack Obama is elected president and Democrats strengthen their grip on Congress, the period could be transformative. Democrats would enact a series of programs that they believe would boost economic growth and improve middle-class living standards.

To read the whole article, press here.

The conclusion is yours...


/A